Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Changes in the Clinical Condition of Patients With Complex Chronic Diseases: 2-Phase Pilot Prospective Single-Center Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Functional impairment is one of the most decisive prognostic factors in patients with complex chronic diseases. A more significant functional impairment indicates that the disease is progressing, which requires implementing diagnostic and therapeutic actions that stop the exacerbation of the disease. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to predict alterations in the clinical condition of patients with complex chronic diseases by predicting the Barthel Index (BI), to assess their clinical and functional status using an artificial intelligence model and data collected through an internet of things mobility device. METHODS: A 2-phase pilot prospective single-center observational study was designed. During both phases, patients were recruited, and a wearable activity tracker was allocated to gather physical activity data. Patients were categorized into class A (BI≤20; total dependence), class B (2060; moderate or mild dependence, or independent). Data preprocessing and machine learning techniques were used to analyze mobility data. A decision tree was used to achieve a robust and interpretable model. To assess the quality of the predictions, several metrics including the mean absolute error, median absolute error, and root mean squared error were considered. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS and Python for the machine learning modeling. RESULTS: Overall, 90 patients with complex chronic diseases were included: 50 during phase 1 (class A: n=10; class B: n=20; and class C: n=20) and 40 during phase 2 (class B: n=20 and class C: n=20). Most patients (n=85, 94%) had a caregiver. The mean value of the BI was 58.31 (SD 24.5). Concerning mobility aids, 60% (n=52) of patients required no aids, whereas the others required walkers (n=18, 20%), wheelchairs (n=15, 17%), canes (n=4, 7%), and crutches (n=1, 1%). Regarding clinical complexity, 85% (n=76) met patient with polypathology criteria with a mean of 2.7 (SD 1.25) categories, 69% (n=61) met the frailty criteria, and 21% (n=19) met the patients with complex chronic diseases criteria. The most characteristic symptoms were dyspnea (n=73, 82%), chronic pain (n=63, 70%), asthenia (n=62, 68%), and anxiety (n=41, 46%). Polypharmacy was presented in 87% (n=78) of patients. The most important variables for predicting the BI were identified as the maximum step count during evening and morning periods and the absence of a mobility device. The model exhibited consistency in the median prediction error with a median absolute error close to 5 in the training, validation, and production-like test sets. The model accuracy for identifying the BI class was 91%, 88%, and 90% in the training, validation, and test sets, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Using commercially available mobility recording devices makes it possible to identify different mobility patterns and relate them to functional capacity in patients with polypathology according to the BI without using clinical parameters.

Survival Impact of an On-Site Medicalization Program in the Control of COVID-19 Outbreaks in 11 Nursing Homes.

BACKGROUND: The elderly admitted to nursing homes have especially suffered the havoc of the COVID-19 pandemic since most of them are not prepared to face such health problems. METHODS: An innovative coordinated on-site medicalization program (MP) in response to a sizeable COVID-19 outbreak in three consecutive waves was deployed, sharing coordination and resources among primary care, the referral hospital, and the eleven residences. The objectives were providing the best possible medical care to residents in their environment, avoiding dehumanization and loneliness of hospital admission, and reducing the saturation of hospitals and the risk of spreading the infection. The main outcomes were a composite endpoint of survival or optimal palliative care (SOPC), survival, and referral to the hospital. RESULTS: 587 of 1199 (49%) residents were infected, of whom 123 (21%) died. Patients diagnosed before the start of the MP presented SOPC, survival, and referrals to the hospital of 83%, 74%, and 22.4%, opposite to 96%, 84%, and 10.6% of patients diagnosed while the MP was set up. The SOPC was independently associated with an MP (OR 3.4 [1.6-7.2]). CONCLUSION: During the COVID-19 outbreak, a coordinated MP successfully obtained a better rate of SOPC while simultaneously reducing the need for hospital admissions, combining optimal medical management with a more compassionate and humanistic approach in older people.

Feasibility of the Implementation of LESS-CHRON in Clinical Practice: A Pilot Intervention Study in Older Patients With Multimorbidity.

Background and Objectives: Potentially inappropriate medication refers to the prescription of drugs whose risks outweigh the benefits. There are different pharmacotherapeutic optimization strategies to detect and avoid potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs), namely deprescription. The List of Evidence-Based Deprescribing for Chronic Patients (LESS-CHRON) criteria were designed as a tool to systematize the deprescribing process. LESS-CHRON has established itself as one of the most suitable to be applied in older (≥65 years) multimorbid patients. However, it has not been applied to these patients, to measure the impact on their treatment. For this reason, a pilot study was conducted to analyze the feasibility of implementing this tool in a care pathway. Research Design and Methods: A pre-post quasi-experimental study was conducted. Older outpatients with multimorbidity from the Internal Medicine Unit of a benchmark Hospital were included. The main variable was feasibility in clinical practice, understood as the likelihood that the deprescribing intervention recommended by the pharmacist would be applied to the patient. Success rate, therapeutic, and anticholinergic burden, and other variables related to health care utilization were analyzed. Results: A total of 95 deprescribing reports were prepared. Forty-three were evaluated by the physician who assessed the recommendations made by pharmacists. This translates into an implementation feasibility of 45.3%. The application of LESS-CHRON identified 92 PIMs. The acceptance rate was 76.7% and after 3 months 82.7% of the stopped drugs remained deprescribed. A reduction in anticholinergic burden and enhanced adherence was achieved. However, no improvement was found in clinical or health care utilization variables. Discussion and Implications: The implementation of the tool in a care pathway is feasible. The intervention has achieved great acceptance and deprescribing has been successful in a not insignificant percentage. Future studies with a larger sample size are necessary to obtain more robust results in clinical and health care utilization variables.

Physiotherapy in palliative medicine: patient and caregiver wellness.

OBJECTIVES: Despite the demonstrated efficacy of physiotherapy in palliative care programmes, there are scarce data of its real-life impact on patients' and caregivers' wellness and stress. Our aim was to assess effectiveness of a 30-day physiotherapy programme in psychological wellness and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of patients with advanced chronic diseases or cancer and in their caregivers' stress. METHODS: Quasiexperimental before-after study applying personalised kinesitherapy, exercise with curative effects, respiratory physiotherapy, therapeutic massages and ergotherapy. Psychological wellness, HRQoL and caregiver's strain outcomes were measured. RESULTS: 207 patients (60% men, with a mean age of 73.6±12 years) were included; 129 (62.3%) with advanced cancer, and the remaining 78 with advanced chronic diseases. Psychological wellness (Emotional Stress Detection Tool decreased from 12.4±3 to 11±3; p<0.0001), caregiver's strain (Caregiver Strain Index decreased from 8.5±3.2 to 7.9±3.5; p<0.0001) and HRQoL (WHO-BREF physical health domain increased from 8.3±2.6 to 9.4±2.9; p<0.0001) showed a significant improvement after the physiotherapy programme. Global satisfaction with the physiotherapy intervention was also high (Client Satisfaction Questionnaire-8 of 28.3±3.3 points). CONCLUSIONS: A personalised physiotherapy programme incorporated to integral palliative care improved psychological wellness, HRQoL and caregivers' strain of patients with advanced chronic diseases and cancer.

Predicting 30-Day Readmission Risk for Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Through a Federated Machine Learning Architecture on Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) Data: Development and Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: Owing to the nature of health data, their sharing and reuse for research are limited by legal, technical, and ethical implications. In this sense, to address that challenge and facilitate and promote the discovery of scientific knowledge, the Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) principles help organizations to share research data in a secure, appropriate, and useful way for other researchers. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was the FAIRification of existing health research data sets and applying a federated machine learning architecture on top of the FAIRified data sets of different health research performing organizations. The entire FAIR4Health solution was validated through the assessment of a federated model for real-time prediction of 30-day readmission risk in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS: The application of the FAIR principles on health research data sets in 3 different health care settings enabled a retrospective multicenter study for the development of specific federated machine learning models for the early prediction of 30-day readmission risk in patients with COPD. This predictive model was generated upon the FAIR4Health platform. Finally, an observational prospective study with 30 days follow-up was conducted in 2 health care centers from different countries. The same inclusion and exclusion criteria were used in both retrospective and prospective studies. RESULTS: Clinical validation was demonstrated through the implementation of federated machine learning models on top of the FAIRified data sets from different health research performing organizations. The federated model for predicting the 30-day hospital readmission risk was trained using retrospective data from 4.944 patients with COPD. The assessment of the predictive model was performed using the data of 100 recruited (22 from Spain and 78 from Serbia) out of 2070 observed (records viewed) patients during the observational prospective study, which was executed from April 2021 to September 2021. Significant accuracy (0.98) and precision (0.25) of the predictive model generated upon the FAIR4Health platform were observed. Therefore, the generated prediction of 30-day readmission risk was confirmed in 87% (87/100) of cases. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing a FAIR data policy in health research performing organizations to facilitate data sharing and reuse is relevant and needed, following the discovery, access, integration, and analysis of health research data. The FAIR4Health project proposes a technological solution in the health domain to facilitate alignment with the FAIR principles.

A randomized clinical trial of home telemonitoring in patients with advanced heart and lung diseases.

BRIEF SUMMARY: The addition of home monitoring to an integrated care model in patients with advanced chronic heart/lung diseases decreases mortality, hospital and emergency admissions, improves functional status, HRQoL, and is cost-effective. BACKGROUND: Telemonitoring is a promising implement for medicine, but its efficacy is unknown in patients with advanced heart and lung failure (AHLF). OBJECTIVE: To determine the efficacy of a telemonitoring system added to coordinated clinical care in patients with AHLF. DESIGN: Randomized phase 3 multicenter clinical trial with parallel groups in adult patients. PARTICIPANTS: Five spanish centers including patients with AHLF at discharge or in out-patient clinics. INTERVENTION: Patients were randomly assigned to receive a remote bio-parameters telemonitoring system (TELECARE) or best usual care (UCARE). TELECARE patients were provided with devices that collected symptoms and bio-parameters, and transferred them synchronously to a call-center, with a real-time health-care response. MAIN MEASURES: Primary end point was the need of admissions/emergency room visits at 45, 90, 180 days. Secondary end points included health care requirements, mortality, functional assessment, health related quality of life (HRQoL), perceived satisfaction, and cost-efficacy. RESULTS: 510 patients were included (54.5% women, median age 76.5 years; 63.1% suffered heart failure, 13.9% lung failure, and 22.9% both conditions). Clinical and functional features were comparable in both arms. TELECARE globally needed less admissions with respect UCARE after 45 days of inclusion (35.4% vs. 46.9%, p < 0.05). This tendency was maintained in the subgroups of patients with multimorbidity (34.2% vs. 46.9%, p < 0.05), intermediate risk of mortality (36.5% vs. 51.1%, p < 0.05), and those included after hospital discharge (34.9% vs. 50.5%, p < 0.01). HRQoL significantly improved (TELECARE/UCARE EuroQol baseline of 56.2 ± 18.2/55.1 ± 19.7, p = 0.054, and 64 ± 19.9/56.3 ± 21.6; p < 0.01 at the end), and perceived satisfaction was also higher (6.77 ± 0.52 vs. 6.62 ± 0.81, p < 0.001; highest possible score = 7). A trend to mortality decrease was also observed (12.9% vs. 19.3%, p = 0.13). TELECARE was cost-efficacious (TELECARE/UCARE QALY 3.94 Euros/0.81Euros). CONCLUSIONS: The addition of a telemonitoring system to an integrated care model in patients with AHLF decreases hospital and emergency admissions, improves functional status as well as HRQoL, and is cost-efficacious.

Oxidative Stress, Telomere Shortening, and Apoptosis Associated to Sarcopenia and Frailty in Patients with Multimorbidity.

BACKGROUND: The presence of oxidative stress, telomere shortening, and apoptosis in polypathological patients (PP) with sarcopenia and frailty remains unknown. METHODS: Multicentric prospective observational study in order to assess oxidative stress markers (catalase, glutathione reductase (GR), total antioxidant capacity to reactive oxygen species (TAC-ROS), and superoxide dismutase (SOD)), absolute telomere length (aTL), and apoptosis (DNA fragmentation) in peripheral blood samples of a hospital-based population of PP. Associations of these biomarkers to sarcopenia, frailty, functional status, and 12-month mortality were analyzed. RESULTS: Of the 444 recruited patients, 97 (21.8%), 278 (62.6%), and 80 (18%) were sarcopenic, frail, or both, respectively. Oxidative stress markers (lower TAC-ROS and higher SOD) were significantly enhanced and aTL significantly shortened in patients with sarcopenia, frailty or both syndromes. No evidence of apoptosis was detected in blood leukocytes of any of the patients. Both oxidative stress markers (GR, p = 0.04) and telomere shortening (p = 0.001) were associated to death risk and to less survival days. CONCLUSIONS: Oxidative stress markers and telomere length were enhanced and shortened, respectively, in blood samples of polypathological patients with sarcopenia and/or frailty. Both were associated to decreased survival. They could be useful in the clinical practice to assess vulnerable populations with multimorbidity and of potential interest as therapeutic targets.

A multicenter randomized clinical trial to evaluate the efficacy of telemonitoring in patients with advanced heart and lung chronic failure. Study protocol for the ATLAN_TIC project.

BACKGROUND: Using technologies of information and communication (TICs) is emerging in medical assistance. TICs application for medical assistance is promising. Its applicability in advanced heart and/or respiratory failure is still controversial because studies have shown methodological weakness which could put in danger their conclusions. Our objective is to evaluate efficacy of the application of home monitoring biological parameters in a multi-level model of coordinated clinical care for patients with chronic diseases with advanced heart (HF) and/or respiratory failure (RF) in comparison with conventional clinical care. METHOD: /Design: Multicentric, phase III, randomized, parallel groups, controlled clinical trial. Patients with advanced HF and/or RF were eligible to participate. Patients received medical assistance by a multi-level model of coordinated clinical care with or without home monitoring. Follow up was performed until 180 days after inclusion. Primary efficacy outcome was defined as the percentage of patients with hospitalization/emergency room visits. Secondary efficacy outcomes were hospital admissions, admissions to hospital emergencies and Primary Care Emergencies, number of days of hospital stay, total cost per patient in euros, mortality, change in functional status, quality of life, assistance and technology devices. Intention to treat, as well as per protocol, and incremental cost-effectiveness analysis will be performed. The number of recruits patients per arm is set at 255, a total of 510 patients. DISCUSSION: This trial could provide some knowledge about the real impact of home monitoring for patients with advanced HF and/or RF within a multi-level model of integrated care.

A multidisciplinary approach for patients with multiple chronic conditions: IMPACTO study / Plan de asistencia continuada multidisciplinar a pacientes pluripatológicos: estudio IMPACTO

Background and objective: The objective of the study was to evaluate the effects of a multidisciplinary intervention on the outcomes of polypathological patients (PP). Methods: A multicenter quasi-experimental pre-post study with a 12-month follow up was performed. In-hospital, at discharge and outpatient clinics patients who met criteria of PP between March 2012 and October 2013 were included. The multidisciplinary approach was defined by 11 interventions performed by general practitioners, internal medicine physicians, team care nurses and hospital pharmacists. The primary outcome was reduction in the number of hospital admissions and days of hospitalization. Secondary outcomes included mortality and the effects of 11 interventions on mortality. Results: 420 patients were included. Mean patient age was 77.3 (SD: 8.90) and average number of PP defining categories was 2.99 (SD: 1.00). Number of hospital admissions and days of hospitalization decreased significantly after intervention: 1.52 (SD: 1.35) versus 0.82 (SD: 1.29), p<0.001, and 13.77 (SD: 15.20) versus 7.21 (SD: 12.90), p<0.001 respectively. 12-month mortality was 37.7%. PP who failed to receive a structured medical visit from the internal medicine physician and educational workshops from the team care nurses had a higher risk of exitus in the next 12 months, HR: 1.68; 95% CI: 1.15-2.46, p=0.007 and HR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.92-4.27, p<0.001, respectively. Conclusions: This multidisciplinary intervention reduced the risk of PP hospital admission and days of hospitalization. Educational workshop programs for PP and their caregivers and structured IM medical visits were associated with improvements of survival

Introducción y objetivo: El objetivo del estudio fue evaluar los resultados en salud tras la implantación de una intervención multidisciplinar a pacientes pluripatológicos (PP). Metodología: Se realizó un estudio multicéntrico antes-después cuasi-experimental, con seguimiento a 12 meses. Se incluyeron pacientes que cumplían los criterios de PP entre marzo de 2012 y octubre de 2013, tanto en el ámbito hospitalario como en atención primaria. El enfoque multidisciplinar fue definido por 11 intervenciones realizadas por médicos de familia, médicos internistas, enfermeras y farmacéuticos hospitalarios. El resultado fundamental fue la reducción en el número de ingresos hospitalarios y días de hospitalización al año de seguimiento. Los resultados secundarios incluyeron la mortalidad y los efectos de las intervenciones sobre la misma. Resultados: Se incluyeron 420 pacientes. La edad media de los pacientes fue de 77,3 (DE: 8,90) y la media de categorías definitorias de PP fue de 2,99 (DE: 1,00). El número de ingresos hospitalarios y los días de hospitalización disminuyeron significativamente después de la intervención: 1,52 (DE: 1,35) versus 0,82 (DE: 1,29), p<0,001 y 13,77 (DE: 15,20) versus 7,21 (DE: 12,90), p<0,001, respectivamente. La mortalidad a los 12 meses fue del 37,7%. Los PP que no recibieron la visita médica estructurada del médico internista tras la inclusión y los talleres educativos de las enfermeras tuvieron un mayor riesgo de exitus en los 12 meses de seguimiento, HR: 1,68; IC del 95%: 1,15-2,46, p=0,007 y HR: 2,86; IC del 95%: 1,92-4,27, p<0,001, respectivamente. Conclusiones: Esta intervención multidisciplinaria reduce el riesgo de ingreso y los días de ingreso hospitalario en PP. Los programas de talleres educativos para PP y sus cuidadores, y las visitas médicas estructuradas por parte de medicina interna se asociaron con una mayor supervivencia

Selection of interventions aimed at improving medication adherence in patients with multimorbidity.

OBJECTIVES: To select interventions aimed at improving medication adherence in patients with multimorbidity by means of a standardised methodology. METHODS: A modified Delphi methodology was used to reach consensus. Interventions that had demonstrated their efficacy in improving medication adherence in patients with multimorbidity or in similar populations were identified from a literature search of several databases (PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, Center for Reviews and Dissemination, and Web of Science). 11 experts in medication adherence and/or chronic disease scored the selected interventions for appropriateness according to three criteria: strength of the evidence that supported each intervention, usefulness in patients with multimorbidity, and feasibility of implementation in clinical practice. The final set of interventions was selected according to appropriateness and agreement based on the Delphi methodology. RESULTS: 566 articles were retrieved in the literature search. Nine systematic reviews were included. 33 interventions were initially selected for evaluation by the panellists. Consensus after two Delphi rounds was reached on 16 interventions. Five interventions were categorized as educational, six as behavioural and five were related to other aspects of interest. CONCLUSIONS: The interventions selected following a comprehensive and standardized methodology, could be used to improve medication adherence in patients with multimorbidity.

Concordance between the Clinical Definition of Polypathological Patient versus Automated Detection by Means of Combined Identification through ICD-9-CM Codes.

It is unknown whether the digital application of automated ICD-9-CM codes recorded in the medical history are useful for a first screening in the detection of polypathological patients. In this study, the objective was to identify the degree of intra- and inter-observer concordance in the identification of in-patient polypathological patients between the standard clinical identification method and a new automatic method, using the basic minimum data set of ICD-9-CM codes in the digital medical history. For this, a cross-sectional multicenter study with 1518 administratively discharged patients from Andalusian hospitals during the period of 2013-2014 has been carried out. For the concordance between the clinical definition of a polypathological patient and the polypathological patient classification according to ICD-9-CM coding, a 0.661 kappa was obtained (95% confidence interval (CI); 0.622-0.701) with p < 0.0001. The intraclass correlation coefficient between both methods for the number of polypathological patient categories was 0.745 (95% CI; 0.721-0.768; p < 0.0001). The values of sensitivity, specificity, positive-, and negative predictive values of the automated detection using ICD-9-CM coding were 78%, 88%, 78%, and 88%, respectively. As conclusion, the automatic identification of polypathological patients by detecting ICD-9-CM codes is useful as a screening method for in-hospital patients.

Impact of Sarcopenia and Frailty in a Multicenter Cohort of Polypathological Patients.

The prevalence, relationships and outcomes of sarcopenia and frailty in polypathological patients remain unknown. We performed a multicenter prospective observational study in six hospitals in order to assess prevalence, clinical features, outcome and associated risk factors of sarcopenia and frailty in a hospital-based population of polypathological patients. The cohort was recruited by performing prevalence surveys every 14 days during the inclusion period (March 2012-June 2016). Sarcopenia was assessed by means of EWGSOP criteria and frailty by means of Fried's criteria. Skeletal muscle mass was measured by tetrapolar bioimpedanciometry. All patients were followed for 12 months. Factors associated with sarcopenia, frailty and mortality were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression, and Kaplan-Meier curves. A total of 444 patients (77.3 ± 8.4 years, 55% males) were included. Sarcopenia was present in 97 patients (21.8%), this being moderate in 54 (12.2%), and severe in 43 (9.6%); frailty was present in 278 patients (62.6%), and 140 (31.6%) were pre-frail; combined sarcopenia and frailty were present in the same patient in 80 (18%) patients. Factors independently associated to the presence of both, sarcopenia and frailty were female gender, older age, different chronic conditions, poor functional status, low body mass index, asthenia and depressive disorders, and low leucocytes and lymphocytes count. Mortality in the 12-months follow-up period was 40%. Patients with sarcopenia, frailty or both survived significantly less than those without these conditions. Sarcopenia and frailty are frequent and interrelated conditions in polypathological patients, shadowing their survival. Their early recognition and management could improve health-related outcomes in this population.

Ferric carboxymaltose with or without erythropoietin in anemic patients with hip fracture: a randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: The increasing incidence of osteoporotic hip fracture (HF) has raised the requirements of red blood cell (RBC) transfusions, whereas this scarce resource may cause morbidity and mortality. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This study was a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, clinical trial that aimed to assess efficacy of ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) with or without erythropoietin (EPO) in reducing RBC transfusion in the perioperative period of HF. Participants (patients > 65 years admitted with HF and hemoglobin [Hb] levels of 90-120 g/L) were randomly assigned to receive a preoperative single dose of 1 g of FCM (short intravenous [IV] infusion over 15 min), plus 40,000 IU of subcutaneous EPO (EPOFE arm); versus 1 g of IV FCM plus subcutaneous placebo (FE arm); and versus IV and subcutaneous placebo (placebo arm). Primary endpoint was the percentage of patients who received RBC transfusion, and secondary endpoints were the number of RBC transfusions per patient, survival, hemoglobinemia, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL; by means of Short Form 36 Version 2 questionnaire). RESULTS: A total of 306 patients (85% women, mean age 83 ± 6.5 years) were included. A total of 52, 51.5, and 54% of patients required RBC transfusion in the EPOFE, FE, and placebo arms, respectively, with no significant differences in the number of RBC transfusions per patient, survival, HRQoL, and adverse events among treatment groups. A significant increase in Hb levels was achieved at discharge (102 g/L vs. 97 g/L) and 60 days after discharge (125 g/L vs. 119 g/L) in the EPOFE arm with respect to placebo arm; in addition, a higher rate of patients recovered from anemia in the EPOFE arm with respect to the placebo arm (52% vs. 39%), 60 days after discharge. CONCLUSION: Preoperative treatment with FCM alone or in combination with EPO improved recovery from postoperative anemia, but did not reduce the needs of RBC transfusion in patients with HF.

Development of a six-month prognostic index in patients with advanced chronic medical conditions: the PALIAR score.

CONTEXT: Efforts in developing useful tools to properly identify the end-of-life trajectory of patients with advanced medical diseases have been made, but the calibration and/or discriminative power of these tools has not been optimal. OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to develop a new, reliable prognostic tool to identify the probability of death within six months in patients with chronic medical diseases. METHODS: This was a multicenter, prospective, observational study in 41 Spanish hospitals, which included 1778 patients with one or more of the following: advanced conditions such as heart failure, respiratory failure, chronic renal failure, chronic liver disease, and/or chronic neurological disease. All patients were followed over six months. Each factor independently associated with death in the derivation cohort (884 patients from eastern areas of Spain) was assigned a prognostic weight, and the score was calculated by summing up the factors. The score's accuracy in the validation cohort (894 patients from western areas of Spain) was assessed by analyzing its calibration and discriminative power; we also calculated sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. RESULTS: Mortality in the derivation/validation cohorts was 37.6%/37.7%, respectively. We identified six independent predictors of mortality (≥85 years, three points; New York Heart Association Class IV/Stage 4 dyspnea on the modified Medical Research Council, 3.5 points; anorexia, 3.5 points; presence of pressure ulcer(s), three points; Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status of three or more, four points; and albuminemia ≤2.5g/dL, four points). Mortality in the derivation/validation cohorts according to risk group was 20%/21.5% for patients with zero points; 33%/30.5% for those with 3-3.5 points; 46.3%/43% for those with four to seven points; and 67%/61% for those who reached 7.5 or more points, respectively. The calibration was good (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P=0.39), as was the discriminative power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.69 [0.66-0.72]). The sensitivity (85%), specificity (86%), positive and negative predictive values (64% and 80%, respectively) at 180 days were high. CONCLUSION: The PALIAR score is a precise and reliable tool for identifying the end-of-life trajectory in patients with advanced medical diseases.

Errores de conciliación al ingreso hospitalario en pacientes pluripatológicos mediante metodología estandarizada / Medication reconciliation on hospital admission in patients with multiple chronic diseases using a standardised methodology

Objetivos: Conocer la incidencia de los errores de conciliación en el ingreso hospitalario en pacientes pluripatológicos a través de una metodología estandarizada. Material y método: Estudio observacional prospectivo en pacientes pluripatológicos ingresados en un hospital de tercer nivel. Se realizó conciliación al ingreso hospitalario siguiendo la metodología considerada como más adecuada para estos pacientes por un panel de expertos, según el método Delphi. La fuente de información principal utilizada fue la historia clínica digital, tanto la hospitalaria como la de atención primaria, recurriendo a la entrevista clínica en caso necesario. Se registraron tanto las discrepancias justificadas por el clínico como los errores de conciliación. Se analizó el tipo de error, los grupos farmacológicos implicados y se valoró la gravedad de cada uno de ellos. Resultados: Se incluyeron 114 pacientes, encontrándose errores de conciliación en el 75,4% de ellos. Los pacientes tenían 1.397 fármacos prescritos, de los cuales 234 presentaron discrepancias que requirieron aclaración con el clínico responsable. De estas 234 discrepancias, el clínico modificó la prescripción en 184 de ellas, consideradas errores de conciliación. Los tipos de error fueron: omisión de medicamentos (139), comisión (9), dosis, pauta o vía diferentes (24) y por prescripción incompleta (12). Entre los subgrupos farmacoterapéuticos más afectados por los errores se encontraron los antianémicos, vitaminas, y psicoanalépticos. Conclusiones: El porcentaje de pacientes pluripatológicos con errores de conciliación es elevado. El desarrollo de una metodología dirigida especialmente a los pacientes pluripatológicos consigue detectar y disminuir en un alto porcentaje los errores de medicación relacionados con los cambios de niveles asistenciales (AU)

Objectives: To determine the incidence of medication errors when admitting patients with multiple chronic conditions to hospital, using a standard method. Material and method: A prospective, observational study was conducted on patients with multiple chronic conditions admitted to a tertiary hospital. The medication reconciliation was performed using the standard method considered the most suitable for these patients by an expert panel, following the Delphi methodology. The main information source used for this was the computerised clinical notes, both in primary care and in the hospital, recurring to a clinical interview if necessary. Discrepancies justified by the clinician, as well as reconciliation errors were recorded. The type of error and the pharmacological group involved were analysed and the seriousness of each one of them was assessed. Results: A total of 114 patients were included, with reconciliation errors being found in 75.4% of cases. The patients had 1397 prescribed drugs, of which 234 had discrepancies that required clarification by the clinician responsible. The clinician modified the prescription in 184 of these discrepancies, which were considered reconciliation errors. The types of error were: medication omission (139), commission (9), dose, prescription or different routes (24) and by incomplete prescription (12). Anti-anaemic drugs, vitamins, and psychoanaleptics were among the pharmacotherapeutic groups most affected by the errors. Conclusions: The percentage of patients with multiple chronic conditions with errors is elevated. The development of methods particularly directed at patients with multiple chronic conditions manages to detect and decrease a high percentage of medication errors associated with changes of care levels (AU)

[Medication reconciliation on hospital admission in patients with multiple chronic diseases using a standardised methodology]. / Errores de conciliación al ingreso hospitalario en pacientes pluripatológicos mediante metodología estandarizada.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence of medication errors when admitting patients with multiple chronic conditions to hospital, using a standard method. MATERIAL AND METHOD: A prospective, observational study was conducted on patients with multiple chronic conditions admitted to a tertiary hospital. The medication reconciliation was performed using the standard method considered the most suitable for these patients by an expert panel, following the Delphi methodology. The main information source used for this was the computerised clinical notes, both in primary care and in the hospital, recurring to a clinical interview if necessary. Discrepancies justified by the clinician, as well as reconciliation errors were recorded. The type of error and the pharmacological group involved were analysed and the seriousness of each one of them was assessed. RESULTS: A total of 114 patients were included, with reconciliation errors being found in 75.4% of cases. The patients had 1397 prescribed drugs, of which 234 had discrepancies that required clarification by the clinician responsible. The clinician modified the prescription in 184 of these discrepancies, which were considered reconciliation errors. The types of error were: medication omission (139), commission (9), dose, prescription or different routes (24) and by incomplete prescription (12). Anti-anaemic drugs, vitamins, and psychoanaleptics were among the pharmacotherapeutic groups most affected by the errors. CONCLUSIONS: The percentage of patients with multiple chronic conditions with errors is elevated. The development of methods particularly directed at patients with multiple chronic conditions manages to detect and decrease a high percentage of medication errors associated with changes of care levels.

Reliability of a short questionnaire for the diagnosis of severe disability in polypathological patients attended in hospital setting.

BACKGROUND: A comprehensive evaluation of polypathological patients (PP) should always include a functional evaluation. For this purpose, a modified version of the Barthel Index (BI) is the most applied questionnaire, and it consists of a 10-variable scale. The aim of this study was to develop a screening and confirmation tool to diagnose high disability with the fewest number of dimensions of the BI as possible. METHOD: This present cross-sectional observational multicentre study included PP attended in 36 Spanish hospitals that were divided into two geographical areas (Western and Eastern). The Western area was considered to be the derivation subgroup of PP, and the Eastern area was the validation subgroup. Complete disability for each item (value of 0) was assessed for the diagnosis of severe disability. Diagnostic validity indices (sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values [NPV and PPV, respectively], and negative and positive likelihood ratios [NLR and PLR, respectively]) were determined for the derivation subgroup. The dimensions with the best diagnostic validity indices were then used to evaluate the validation subgroup. RESULTS: The analysis included 1521 PP, 753 PP from the Western area and 768 PP from the Eastern area. Needing complete help for bathing showed the highest NPV and lowest NLR in the derivation/validation subgroups (NPV 96.87/95.54, NLR 0.07/0.13). Being disabled for feeding alone showed high PPV and PLR values (PPV 97.97/95.65, PLR 109.25/49.62), as did disability for transfers (PPV 98.48/97.96, PLR 143.36/107.68). In addition, complete disability for feeding and transfers had the best PPV and PLR in both subgroups (PPV 100/100, PLR X/0). CONCLUSIONS: A two-dimension mini-Barthel Index may represent a reliable diagnostic test for severe disability in PP.